Putin Planned This

Today, a day after Putin invaded Ukraine, I see a lot of political pundits and politicians bloviating about how wrong it is and this and that. They have announced sanctions, denounced the aggression and done the types of worthless things politicians and political pundits always do when the geopolitical waters get hot.

Here's my thought: Putin is perhaps evil, but he is not stupid. If he is doing this thing now, he didn't wake up a couple of weeks ago and decide to invade Ukraine. He has been preparing for it for a long time. To that end, I looked at what kind of world-scale moves he has made over the past decade. For starters, he invaded and annexed Crimea about 8 years ago. This is not a particularly consequential country, but it is an important piece of land to control if you want to eventually invade Ukraine. Second, Putin (and the Russian state) sold a bunch of their U.S. debt about 4 years ago. At their peak, they owned $105.7B in U.S. Treasuries; as recent as November 2021, they held about $2.5B in U.S. Treasuries. As a nation, following the sanctions that were imposed on them as a result of their annexation of Crimea in 2014, they went through a period of fiscal austerity - which has them very well set up to 'go it alone'. You hear all of these countries doing rah-rah speeches about 'imposing sanctions on Russia'...its not going to make much of a difference. Another indication of their solid position? Gold Reserves. As of January 2021, Russia held more gold than the U.S., with $583B in reserves.

Putin has been planning this for a long time and that means he has planned for the likely and typical responses of other governments. He does not need money and threats from other nations to 'levy sanctions' at Russia will be largely theatrical/symbolic maneuvers. If World powers want to stop Putin, they will have to put boots on the ground, and he knows as well as anybody, that no one is prepared to do that. No one wants World War III and to go to war with Russia would almost certainly precipitate a large-scale conflict that would have unknown consequences on economies around the World. He has done this now, because he knows he can.

An Accurate Summary

"In other words there is a vacuum of meaning, in our politics, and the really scary question is what will fill it. The right strongman, whether R or D, could ride in and get 65% of the electorate to support him as he casually dispensed with law and democracy, giving the people the firm hand they so desire. We've just been lucky that our recent leaders have been so corrupt, feckless, and decrepit that no one's taken the reins. But we won't be lucky forever."

Thought this article by Freddie deBoer was an excellent summary of the current situation in America. Words don't mean anything, each side is pitting the other with this or that discontent, all making 'the People' ripe for a monster. If you know me, you know I love the quote by Voltaire that reads, "History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes coming up." Another great quote that captures the same idea is, "Hard times make great men, great men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times." (G. Michael Hopf)

We live in an time where we have ultimate luxury...so much so, that we have the luxury of debating things that have utterly zero meaning...and not only do they have absolutely no lasting meaning, but we can argue even about whether those things matter or not. This is the situation that deBoer is describing above, whether he realizes it or not. The lack of meaning has been created by the luxury of society, where we are at a point where there is, for the vast majority of people, no existential threat on a daily, monthly, yearly (and perhaps even lifetime-long) basis, and so we have turned on each other. It is 'silken slippers' on the feet of a nation full of 'weak men/women'. Woe to us when the monster comes, for we are either asleep, or have forgotten how to fight.