Nuclear War: A Scenario

Just finished the new book "Nuclear War: A Scenario" by Annie Jacobsen. I would categorize this as 'hypothetical nonfiction' - a very odd category, but hear me out. It is clear that Jacobsen did her research - she interviewed a very wide range of people who have some kind of expertise in nuclear weapons, whether that be former government officials, or experts who helped create and refine these weapons. She interviewed people who have spent large parts of their careers trying to figure out how to formulate policies around the use of these weapons and who have gamed out nuclear war scenarios. To put a point on it, the scenario she presents in this book is based on the very well-informed opinions and expertise of a) people who have studied nuclear weapons and the consequences of their use and b) people who know the kinds of events and interactions that might transpire in the event of a nuclear attack. In other words, the scenario presented is plausible - it's not based on the imagination of Annie Jacobsen, but rather on informed opinions of people who have spent countless hours imagining what this would be like.

In a word, it's terrifying. She meant it to be. It reminded me of a quote from Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast that I'll never forget:

"We've been kind of on a long stock market run since about the Renaissance or really the middle Ages; haven't had any downturns within a thousand or more years - we've started getting pretty fat and happy and comfortable and you quickly forget that there are variables out there that could do to us what giant plagues that wiped out a quarter of the population could do back in the old days. Nuclear war between the great powers used to feel, even when I was growing up, like a gun aimed at your head and you walked around with this all the time, a sort of Damocles over your entire society, really the entire world. There's a famous Albert Einstein quote that makes him sound like a bit of a pessimist when it comes to the question of society's ability to adapt or die. Answering this question he's supposed to have said, "the unleashed power of the atom has changed everything, save our modes of thinking and thus we drift towards unparalleled catastrophe." A gun aimed at our heads was something we were very aware of when I was a kid. We did duck and cover drills for atomic bombs...but that gun is still pointed at our heads. We just don't notice it anymore because so many people have grown up in that shadow, they're used to it. If somebody's pointing a gun at your head all the time, do you eventually forget about it? If you're born with a gun pointed at your head, do you even notice it?" (-Dan Carlin, Ep 59, "Destroyer of Worlds")

We all have a gun pointed at our heads, but for many (most?) of us, that gun has been pointed at our heads since we were born. We don't think about the fact that several countries, 9 countries to be specific, possess the ability to end life on this planet, as we know it, within a couple of hours. Annie Jacobsen's mission is to remind everyone of this in hopes that perhaps we back away from the cliff, 'razor's edge' as she refers to it. Is it possible to get rid of nuclear weapons? Wouldn't that be in humanity's best interest?

It's hard not to give something away by talking about the details of the book, but with that caveat in place, in the scenario she presents North Korea launches the first bomb, aimed at Washington DC in an attempt at a "decapitation strike". The US decides to counter-attack with it's own nuclear bombs, but has to fly them over Russia because our ICBMs don't have the lateral range to reach North Korea across an ocean. Russia mistakes our missiles for an attack on them and launches their own attack on the US...and well, basically, the whole world descends into chaos and destruction in 58 minutes. It's a terrifying thought that within an hour of you reading this, the majority of the world's population of 7 billion people could be dead/dying. We, collectively, possess this kind of power. Is that good? Is 'deterrence' really a good long-term strategy? What if an accident happens, as it has in the past (watch the movie "The Man Who Saved the World" (2014) if you want a real-life example)? There's too much at stake for anyone to have this capability.

I think it's worth reading this book, especially for my generation and those younger than me - we are the people Dan Carlin is talking about...mostly oblivious to the threat of nuclear weapons and not putting any pressure on our governments to reduce nuclear weapon stockpiles. While I think that it's unlikely that we can get rid of nuclear weapons completely, a step in the right direction would be to reduce them so significantly that they don't pose an existential threat to humanity.

Relating to Faith

As a result of reading this book - I've wondered, "does the Bible allude to nuclear warfare in the end times?" If it does, it's veiled. The ancients believed that the earth was to be destroyed twice, once by water and once by fire. Could the fire be the fires of nuclear war? I personally find it hard to believe that God would allow such a thing to happen...but I also recognize that He killed 99.99% of the world's population in the Flood. So, I must conclude that even in the way God has set things up, nuclear war isn't off the table.

I'm also of the belief that God can (and will) resurrect. If a nuclear holocaust were to happen...that wouldn't be the end of the story. If I watched out my window, as a nuclear bomb destroyed downtown Chicago - I would not be as one without hope. So - I'm not going to spend all of my time worrying about this, but there are people who are far closer to the center of power than I am that I hope read this book and are able to influence world leaders away from nuclear weapons.

Further reading: the end of this book reminded me of another book I've read entitled "A Canticle for Leibowitz". It's a post-apocalyptic book where the main characters find out that the world has ended before...and not only that, but that humanity was destroyed before in the same way it is being destroyed again. Great book, highly recommend.